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2015年07月10日
産業革命遺産 祝賀に水差す韓国の政治工作
The Yomiuri Shimbun
S. Korea’s political maneuvering rains on Japan’s UNESCO parade
産業革命遺産 祝賀に水差す韓国の政治工作
It was persistent political maneuvering by the South Korean government to pour cold water on Japan’s festive mood for the World Heritage site registration.
世界遺産への登録という日本の祝賀ムードに水を差す、韓国政府の執拗しつような政治工作だった。
The UNESCO World Heritage Committee, meeting in Germany, has officially decided to add Japan’s Meiji era (1868-1912) industrial revolution sites to the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage list.
「明治日本の産業革命遺産」が、国連教育・科学・文化機関（ユネスコ）の世界文化遺産に登録されることが、ドイツで開かれた世界遺産委員会で正式に決まった。
The sites are mainly bases for iron and steel manufacturing, shipbuilding and coal industries in the mid-19th to early 20th centuries. They comprise 23 assets in eight prefectures, including the state-run Yawata Steel Works in Fukuoka Prefecture and Hashima Coal Mine − better known as Gunkanjima − in Nagasaki Prefecture. They are heritage sites that Japan can boast of to the world.
遺産は、１９世紀半ばから２０世紀初頭の製鉄・製鋼、造船、石炭産業の拠点が中心である。福岡県の官営八幡製鉄所や、「軍艦島」と呼ばれる長崎県の端島炭坑など、８県の２３資産で構成される。世界に誇り得る遺産と言えよう。
It was unfortunate that the South Korean government excessively played up the “negative side” of Japan’s heritage sites.
残念だったのは、韓国政府が日本の遺産に関する「負の側面」を過剰に演出したことだ。
South Korea initially opposed the registration, claiming that Korean workers were requisitioned at some of the facilities during World War II. But it changed its policy at a foreign ministerial meeting in June and agreed to cooperate with Japan on the bid for World Heritage status.
韓国は当初、大戦中に一部施設で朝鮮人労働者が徴用されていたとして登録に反対したが、６月の日韓外相会談で方針転換し、日本と協力することで合意した。
However, after that, it was revealed that South Korea, at a committee meeting, prepared a draft of remarks stating that Japan had admitted the requisitioned workers were “forced labor.” It included wording that likened the facilities to slave export ports. For that reason, Japan protested the draft and the prior coordination between the two countries hit a snag.
ところが、その後、韓国が委員会で、徴用について「『強制労働』だったと日本が認めた」との発言案を準備したことが判明した。施設を奴隷輸出港になぞらえる文言もあった。このため、日本側が抗議し、事前調整は難航した。
South Korea then seemed to shift the emphasis to an international campaign to spread the idea that requisitioned workers were “forced labor.” It was irrational of South Korea to lobby to strengthen its position over issues relating to historical perceptions at a meeting meant to discuss the protection of cultural assets.
韓国は、徴用が「強制労働」であるかのような国際的な宣伝に力点を移したのだろう。文化財保護を目的とする場で、歴史問題での自国の立場強化を狙うのは、筋違いなロビー外交である。
Requisition mischaracterized
The requisition that Japan carried out through entire territories at that time, including the Korean Peninsula, was based on a national order and targeted all the people there. It is a fact that many Korean workers were mobilized to Japan, but it was different from “forced labor” that violates international laws.
日本が内地や朝鮮半島などで実施した徴用は、国民徴用令に基づき、国民全般が対象だった。多数の朝鮮人労働者が内地へ動員されたのは事実だが、国際法に反する「強制労働」とは異なる。
In the statement made at the committee meeting, Japan pointed out, “There were a large number of Koreans and others who were brought against their will and forced to work under harsh conditions.” By using expressions other than “forced labor” while making concessions to South Korea, Japan intended to have come to terms with South Korea.
日本は委員会の声明で、徴用に関して「意思に反して連れて来られ、厳しい環境の下で働かされた多くの朝鮮半島出身者らがいた」と指摘した。韓国側に譲歩しつつ、「強制労働」とは一線を画する表現で折り合ったつもりだった。
However, turning Japan’s statement to its own advantage, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung Se said, “The Japanese government announced there was ‘forced work,’” and South Korean newspapers covered it extensively. Japan thus wound up letting South Korea cause trouble and have what it wanted, failing to remove the cause of conflicts between Japan and South Korea.
だが、韓国の尹炳世外相は、これを逆手に取って「日本政府が『強制労役』があったと発表した」と語り、韓国紙も大きく報じた。結果的に、徴用の表現を巡って韓国にゴネ得を許し、日韓対立に火種を残したことは否めない。
In the 1965 Agreement Between Japan and the Republic of Korea Concerning the Settlement of Problems in Regard to Property and Claims and Economic Cooperation, Japan and South Korea confirmed that all such claims, including those of former requisitioned workers, were legally settled. １９６５年の請求権協定で、元徴用工を含めた請求権問題は法的に解決済みだ。
Seoul has told Tokyo that it will not use Japan’s statement on the workers to deal with issues concerning the claims. Is there any possibility that South Korea could bring up the issues again in relation to the statement?
韓国は、請求権問題に関連して日本の声明を利用しない、と伝えてきている。この問題を蒸し返すことはないのか。
Due to the latest dustup, “anti-South Korean” sentiment in Japan further increased.
今回の騒動で、日本国内の「嫌韓」感情はさらに高まった。
It is safe to say that cold water was also poured onto the momentum toward the improvement of relations between the two countries.
日韓関係改善の機運にも、冷や水が浴びせられたのは間違いない。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 8, 2015)
S. Korea’s political maneuvering rains on Japan’s UNESCO parade
産業革命遺産 祝賀に水差す韓国の政治工作
It was persistent political maneuvering by the South Korean government to pour cold water on Japan’s festive mood for the World Heritage site registration.
世界遺産への登録という日本の祝賀ムードに水を差す、韓国政府の執拗しつような政治工作だった。
The UNESCO World Heritage Committee, meeting in Germany, has officially decided to add Japan’s Meiji era (1868-1912) industrial revolution sites to the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage list.
「明治日本の産業革命遺産」が、国連教育・科学・文化機関（ユネスコ）の世界文化遺産に登録されることが、ドイツで開かれた世界遺産委員会で正式に決まった。
The sites are mainly bases for iron and steel manufacturing, shipbuilding and coal industries in the mid-19th to early 20th centuries. They comprise 23 assets in eight prefectures, including the state-run Yawata Steel Works in Fukuoka Prefecture and Hashima Coal Mine − better known as Gunkanjima − in Nagasaki Prefecture. They are heritage sites that Japan can boast of to the world.
遺産は、１９世紀半ばから２０世紀初頭の製鉄・製鋼、造船、石炭産業の拠点が中心である。福岡県の官営八幡製鉄所や、「軍艦島」と呼ばれる長崎県の端島炭坑など、８県の２３資産で構成される。世界に誇り得る遺産と言えよう。
It was unfortunate that the South Korean government excessively played up the “negative side” of Japan’s heritage sites.
残念だったのは、韓国政府が日本の遺産に関する「負の側面」を過剰に演出したことだ。
South Korea initially opposed the registration, claiming that Korean workers were requisitioned at some of the facilities during World War II. But it changed its policy at a foreign ministerial meeting in June and agreed to cooperate with Japan on the bid for World Heritage status.
韓国は当初、大戦中に一部施設で朝鮮人労働者が徴用されていたとして登録に反対したが、６月の日韓外相会談で方針転換し、日本と協力することで合意した。
However, after that, it was revealed that South Korea, at a committee meeting, prepared a draft of remarks stating that Japan had admitted the requisitioned workers were “forced labor.” It included wording that likened the facilities to slave export ports. For that reason, Japan protested the draft and the prior coordination between the two countries hit a snag.
ところが、その後、韓国が委員会で、徴用について「『強制労働』だったと日本が認めた」との発言案を準備したことが判明した。施設を奴隷輸出港になぞらえる文言もあった。このため、日本側が抗議し、事前調整は難航した。
South Korea then seemed to shift the emphasis to an international campaign to spread the idea that requisitioned workers were “forced labor.” It was irrational of South Korea to lobby to strengthen its position over issues relating to historical perceptions at a meeting meant to discuss the protection of cultural assets.
韓国は、徴用が「強制労働」であるかのような国際的な宣伝に力点を移したのだろう。文化財保護を目的とする場で、歴史問題での自国の立場強化を狙うのは、筋違いなロビー外交である。
Requisition mischaracterized
The requisition that Japan carried out through entire territories at that time, including the Korean Peninsula, was based on a national order and targeted all the people there. It is a fact that many Korean workers were mobilized to Japan, but it was different from “forced labor” that violates international laws.
日本が内地や朝鮮半島などで実施した徴用は、国民徴用令に基づき、国民全般が対象だった。多数の朝鮮人労働者が内地へ動員されたのは事実だが、国際法に反する「強制労働」とは異なる。
In the statement made at the committee meeting, Japan pointed out, “There were a large number of Koreans and others who were brought against their will and forced to work under harsh conditions.” By using expressions other than “forced labor” while making concessions to South Korea, Japan intended to have come to terms with South Korea.
日本は委員会の声明で、徴用に関して「意思に反して連れて来られ、厳しい環境の下で働かされた多くの朝鮮半島出身者らがいた」と指摘した。韓国側に譲歩しつつ、「強制労働」とは一線を画する表現で折り合ったつもりだった。
However, turning Japan’s statement to its own advantage, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung Se said, “The Japanese government announced there was ‘forced work,’” and South Korean newspapers covered it extensively. Japan thus wound up letting South Korea cause trouble and have what it wanted, failing to remove the cause of conflicts between Japan and South Korea.
だが、韓国の尹炳世外相は、これを逆手に取って「日本政府が『強制労役』があったと発表した」と語り、韓国紙も大きく報じた。結果的に、徴用の表現を巡って韓国にゴネ得を許し、日韓対立に火種を残したことは否めない。
In the 1965 Agreement Between Japan and the Republic of Korea Concerning the Settlement of Problems in Regard to Property and Claims and Economic Cooperation, Japan and South Korea confirmed that all such claims, including those of former requisitioned workers, were legally settled. １９６５年の請求権協定で、元徴用工を含めた請求権問題は法的に解決済みだ。
Seoul has told Tokyo that it will not use Japan’s statement on the workers to deal with issues concerning the claims. Is there any possibility that South Korea could bring up the issues again in relation to the statement?
韓国は、請求権問題に関連して日本の声明を利用しない、と伝えてきている。この問題を蒸し返すことはないのか。
Due to the latest dustup, “anti-South Korean” sentiment in Japan further increased.
今回の騒動で、日本国内の「嫌韓」感情はさらに高まった。
It is safe to say that cold water was also poured onto the momentum toward the improvement of relations between the two countries.
日韓関係改善の機運にも、冷や水が浴びせられたのは間違いない。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 8, 2015)
2015年07月09日
中国ＣＯ２削減 最大排出国の責任はどこに
The Yomiuri Shimbun
China needs to fulfill its obligation in combating global warming
中国ＣＯ２削減 最大排出国の責任はどこに
China should fulfill its responsibility in fighting global warming as the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter.
地球温暖化を食い止めるため、中国は、世界最大の二酸化炭素（ＣＯ２）排出国として、応分の責任を果たすべきだ。
The country has submitted to the United Nations its target for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Its main goal is to reduce CO2 emissions by 60 percent to 65 percent per unit of gross domestic product by the end of 2030, compared with 2005 levels.
中国が、温室効果ガスの排出削減目標を国連に提出した。国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）当たりのＣＯ２排出量を、２０３０年までに０５年比で６０〜６５％削減することが柱だ。
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang emphasized his country’s determination in this respect, saying, “[China] will do its utmost to combat climate change.” Given its numerical target, however, China’s CO2 emissions are bound to increase if its GDP continues to grow.
李克強首相は「気候変動との戦いで最大限の努力をする」と強調した。だが、この目標では、ＧＤＰの拡大が続けば、排出量を増やせることになる。
China has said it will ensure the total amount of domestic CO2 emissions decreases after reaching a peak around 2030.
国内で排出するＣＯ２の総量については、３０年ごろをピークに減少させるという。
China’s reduction target is far from plausible. Its stance seems to reflect its government’s determination to place priority on achieving economic growth rather than adopting environmental protection measures.
真っ当な目標には、ほど遠い。環境対策より経済成長を優先する中国政府の姿勢の表れだろう。
A new framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol on global warming will be worked out at a U.N. climate change conference in Paris − officially titled 21st Session of the Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) − toward the end of the year. The new framework is expected to take effect in 2020.
年末にパリで開かれる国連気候変動枠組み条約の第２１回締約国会議（ＣＯＰ２１）では、京都議定書に代わり、２０年に発効予定の新たな枠組みが策定される。
In preparation for the COP21 meeting, developed nations have unveiled their respective objectives for reductions in total emissions.
それに向け、先進国は、自国内の総排出量の削減目標を国際的に表明している。
China’s per-GDP reduction target can be viewed as an attempt to emphasize its difference from more industrialized countries in its efforts to fight global warming. The country’s posture is based on its belief that developed nations should do more to address the problem, given that their industrial activities led to global warming.
中国がＧＤＰ当たりの削減目標を示したのは、先進国との違いを強調する狙いがあろう。産業活動により温暖化を招いた先進国は、途上国よりも重い責任を負うべきだとの考え方に基づいている。
Large rise in emissions
However, it should be noted that in recent years there has been a remarkable increase in CO2 emissions from newly emerging and developing countries, which are not obliged to curtail their emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. China accounts for about one-fourth of the world’s total CO2 emissions. Its per-capita emissions compare with European Union levels.
しかし、京都議定書で削減義務を負っていない新興国・途上国からの排出量は近年、著しく増えている。特に、中国は世界の４分の１のＣＯ２を排出している。国民１人当たりの排出量も、欧州連合（ＥＵ）と並ぶレベルにある。
It is essential for China to adopt an even more proactive approach toward the problem, a task necessary for reducing CO2 emissions worldwide. Therefore, China needs to improve its energy efficiency while also curbing its thermal power generation, which results in a large amount of CO2 emissions. We believe Japan’s energy-saving technology would help China’s efforts to reduce its emissions.
世界全体の排出量を減らすには、中国のより積極的な取り組みが欠かせない。エネルギー効率の改善や、ＣＯ２排出量が多い石炭火力発電の抑制が必要だ。日本が培ってきた省エネ技術は、中国の排出削減にも役立つだろう。
The list of nations yet to unveil emission reduction targets includes India, the world’s third-largest emitter, as well as Southeast Asian nations, whose emissions are sharply increasing. We are concerned that they may choose to set insufficient reduction goals as a result of China’s influence.
世界３位の排出国であるインドや、排出量が急増する東南アジア諸国などの目標提出は、これからだ。中国の影響を受け、不十分な削減目標を設定する恐れもあるのではないか。
A lesson must be learned from the Kyoto Protocol in making sure the envisaged framework fulfills its purposes. It is important for all nations to steadily carry out emission-reduction measures that are commensurate with their respective amounts of CO2 emissions.
新たな枠組みを実効性あるものにするためには、京都議定書を教訓に、すべての国が排出量に見合った削減策を着実に実行することが重要である。
The Japanese government will soon finalize a numerical target requiring this country to reduce its emissions by 26 percent by the end of fiscal 2030 from fiscal 2013 levels. The figure can be regarded as a target that favorably compares with EU and U.S. objectives.
日本政府は近く、３０年度に１３年度比で２６％削減するという目標を決定する。ＥＵや米国と比べても、遜色のない内容だと言える。
An important task for Japan is to play a leadership role in trying to create a fair framework for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
日本には、公平な枠組み作りのため、主導的な役割を果たすことが求められる。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 8, 2015)
China needs to fulfill its obligation in combating global warming
中国ＣＯ２削減 最大排出国の責任はどこに
China should fulfill its responsibility in fighting global warming as the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter.
地球温暖化を食い止めるため、中国は、世界最大の二酸化炭素（ＣＯ２）排出国として、応分の責任を果たすべきだ。
The country has submitted to the United Nations its target for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Its main goal is to reduce CO2 emissions by 60 percent to 65 percent per unit of gross domestic product by the end of 2030, compared with 2005 levels.
中国が、温室効果ガスの排出削減目標を国連に提出した。国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）当たりのＣＯ２排出量を、２０３０年までに０５年比で６０〜６５％削減することが柱だ。
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang emphasized his country’s determination in this respect, saying, “[China] will do its utmost to combat climate change.” Given its numerical target, however, China’s CO2 emissions are bound to increase if its GDP continues to grow.
李克強首相は「気候変動との戦いで最大限の努力をする」と強調した。だが、この目標では、ＧＤＰの拡大が続けば、排出量を増やせることになる。
China has said it will ensure the total amount of domestic CO2 emissions decreases after reaching a peak around 2030.
国内で排出するＣＯ２の総量については、３０年ごろをピークに減少させるという。
China’s reduction target is far from plausible. Its stance seems to reflect its government’s determination to place priority on achieving economic growth rather than adopting environmental protection measures.
真っ当な目標には、ほど遠い。環境対策より経済成長を優先する中国政府の姿勢の表れだろう。
A new framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol on global warming will be worked out at a U.N. climate change conference in Paris − officially titled 21st Session of the Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) − toward the end of the year. The new framework is expected to take effect in 2020.
年末にパリで開かれる国連気候変動枠組み条約の第２１回締約国会議（ＣＯＰ２１）では、京都議定書に代わり、２０年に発効予定の新たな枠組みが策定される。
In preparation for the COP21 meeting, developed nations have unveiled their respective objectives for reductions in total emissions.
それに向け、先進国は、自国内の総排出量の削減目標を国際的に表明している。
China’s per-GDP reduction target can be viewed as an attempt to emphasize its difference from more industrialized countries in its efforts to fight global warming. The country’s posture is based on its belief that developed nations should do more to address the problem, given that their industrial activities led to global warming.
中国がＧＤＰ当たりの削減目標を示したのは、先進国との違いを強調する狙いがあろう。産業活動により温暖化を招いた先進国は、途上国よりも重い責任を負うべきだとの考え方に基づいている。
Large rise in emissions
However, it should be noted that in recent years there has been a remarkable increase in CO2 emissions from newly emerging and developing countries, which are not obliged to curtail their emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. China accounts for about one-fourth of the world’s total CO2 emissions. Its per-capita emissions compare with European Union levels.
しかし、京都議定書で削減義務を負っていない新興国・途上国からの排出量は近年、著しく増えている。特に、中国は世界の４分の１のＣＯ２を排出している。国民１人当たりの排出量も、欧州連合（ＥＵ）と並ぶレベルにある。
It is essential for China to adopt an even more proactive approach toward the problem, a task necessary for reducing CO2 emissions worldwide. Therefore, China needs to improve its energy efficiency while also curbing its thermal power generation, which results in a large amount of CO2 emissions. We believe Japan’s energy-saving technology would help China’s efforts to reduce its emissions.
世界全体の排出量を減らすには、中国のより積極的な取り組みが欠かせない。エネルギー効率の改善や、ＣＯ２排出量が多い石炭火力発電の抑制が必要だ。日本が培ってきた省エネ技術は、中国の排出削減にも役立つだろう。
The list of nations yet to unveil emission reduction targets includes India, the world’s third-largest emitter, as well as Southeast Asian nations, whose emissions are sharply increasing. We are concerned that they may choose to set insufficient reduction goals as a result of China’s influence.
世界３位の排出国であるインドや、排出量が急増する東南アジア諸国などの目標提出は、これからだ。中国の影響を受け、不十分な削減目標を設定する恐れもあるのではないか。
A lesson must be learned from the Kyoto Protocol in making sure the envisaged framework fulfills its purposes. It is important for all nations to steadily carry out emission-reduction measures that are commensurate with their respective amounts of CO2 emissions.
新たな枠組みを実効性あるものにするためには、京都議定書を教訓に、すべての国が排出量に見合った削減策を着実に実行することが重要である。
The Japanese government will soon finalize a numerical target requiring this country to reduce its emissions by 26 percent by the end of fiscal 2030 from fiscal 2013 levels. The figure can be regarded as a target that favorably compares with EU and U.S. objectives.
日本政府は近く、３０年度に１３年度比で２６％削減するという目標を決定する。ＥＵや米国と比べても、遜色のない内容だと言える。
An important task for Japan is to play a leadership role in trying to create a fair framework for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
日本には、公平な枠組み作りのため、主導的な役割を果たすことが求められる。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 8, 2015)
2015年07月08日
ギリシャ危機 国民投票は悲劇の幕開けか
The Yomiuri Shimbun
Does Greek national referendum mark beginning of a tragic drama?
ギリシャ危機 国民投票は悲劇の幕開けか
Did the Greek people raise the curtain on a tragic drama?
ギリシャ国民は、自らの手で悲劇の幕を開けてしまったのだろうか。
In the national referendum held in Greece on Sunday on structural reform proposals demanded by the European Union, “no” votes accounted for more than 60 percent of the total, surpassing the affirmative votes by an overwhelming margin.
欧州連合（ＥＵ）などが示した構造改革案の受け入れを巡るギリシャの国民投票で、反対が６割を超え、賛成を大差で上回った。
The rejection of the EU proposals, which were the conditions for resuming financial assistance, has made it more difficult to agree on a bailout package.
金融支援再開の条件であるＥＵ案が退けられ、合意は一段と難しくなった。
Eurozone countries were to discuss how to respond in a meeting of their leaders Tuesday, but an easy compromise would lead to a backlash from their own peoples. Given the deadlock in negotiations, it has become more likely that Greece will fall into a full-scale default and be pressured to decide whether to leave the eurozone.
ユーロ圏各国は７日の首脳会議で対応を協議するが、安易な妥協は自国民の反発を招きかねない。交渉の行き詰まりでギリシャが本格的な債務不履行（デフォルト）に陥り、ユーロ圏離脱を迫られるシナリオは現実味を増した。
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras characterized the outcome of the plebiscite as a “victory for democracy.” But he was utterly off the mark.
チプラス首相が、国民投票の結果について「民主主義の勝利」と位置付けたのは、あまりに見当違いと言わざるを得ない。
In the first place, it was tremendously problematic that he had asked the people to decide the future course of complicated diplomatic negotiations.
そもそも、複雑な外交交渉の決断を、国民投票に丸投げした手法に大きな問題がある。
The Tsipras administration abruptly decided to call the national referendum amid negotiations with the EU, allowing for about a week before the plebiscite was held. This was too short a period.
チプラス政権はＥＵ側との交渉中に突如、国民投票を決めた。国民への周知期間は１週間ほどで、あまりに短かった。
It cannot be overlooked that Tsipras created false expectations among the people that Greece would gain a strong negotiating position to press for concessions from the EU with a “no” vote majority.
反対票が多数を占めれば、ＥＵ側に譲歩を迫る強い交渉力が得られると唱え、国民に誤った期待を抱かせたことも看過できない。
Mutual concessions key
Greece has already restricted cash withdrawals from its banks. If the European Central Bank cuts off emergency financial aid, the country will be forced to walk a tightrope as it will face a deadlock in raising cash from banks.
ギリシャでは既に、銀行預金の引き出しが制限されている。欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）が緊急支援を打ち切れば、銀行の資金繰りが行き詰まる綱渡りの状況にある。
It was irresponsible that Tsipras did not explain sufficiently to the people the possible adverse effects of raising the level of confrontation with the EU.
ＥＵ側との対立が激化した際のマイナス面を、国民に十分に説明しなかったのは無責任だ。
Greece could seek to survive a fund shortage by issuing a currency of its own, but this would represent the first step toward an exit from the eurozone. It is feared that the value of a currency with less creditworthiness would plunge and drive the country into serious inflation because it relies on imports for many of its daily necessities.
独自の通貨を発行し、資金不足をしのぐ選択肢もあるが、ユーロ圏離脱への第一歩を踏み出すことにつながる。信用力のない通貨が暴落し、生活必需品の多くを輸入に頼るギリシャが、深刻なインフレに見舞われる恐れもある。
The Greek people should not be driven into a further predicament. Without sticking to an anti-austerity stance, the Tsipras administration should seek to find realistic concessions by July 20, the deadline for redeeming €3.5 billion in government bonds.
国民をさらなる苦境に追い込んではなるまい。チプラス政権は反緊縮に拘泥せず、３５億ユーロに上る国債の償還期限が来る７月２０日までに現実的な妥協を図るべきだ。
For its part, it would be unwise for the EU to shut down the channel for negotiations.
ＥＵ側も、交渉の窓口を閉ざすことは得策ではない。
Financial markets continue to feel the adverse effects of the Greek financial crisis, with the Nikkei Stock Average, for example, plummeting more than 500 points momentarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday.
東京市場の平均株価が一時５００円以上も急落するなど、金融市場に悪影響が広がっている。
There is concern that anti-EU political parties will gain strength in Spain and Italy and shake confidence in the euro. Another concern is whether Greece, which has a strategically important position in terms of security, will strengthen relations with Russia or China, thereby heightening geopolitical risk.
スペインやイタリアで反ＥＵ政党が勢力を強め、ユーロの信認を揺さぶる懸念がある。安全保障上の要衝にあるギリシャがロシアや中国と関係を強め、地政学的なリスクが高まることも心配だ。
To avoid restoking a Europe-originated financial crisis and to prevent it from seriously affecting economic and political stability, the EU must do whatever it can to break the stalemate.
欧州発の危機を再燃させ、経済や政治の安定に深刻な打撃を与えないよう、ＥＵ側も事態打開に最善を尽くさねばならない。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 7, 2015)
Does Greek national referendum mark beginning of a tragic drama?
ギリシャ危機 国民投票は悲劇の幕開けか
Did the Greek people raise the curtain on a tragic drama?
ギリシャ国民は、自らの手で悲劇の幕を開けてしまったのだろうか。
In the national referendum held in Greece on Sunday on structural reform proposals demanded by the European Union, “no” votes accounted for more than 60 percent of the total, surpassing the affirmative votes by an overwhelming margin.
欧州連合（ＥＵ）などが示した構造改革案の受け入れを巡るギリシャの国民投票で、反対が６割を超え、賛成を大差で上回った。
The rejection of the EU proposals, which were the conditions for resuming financial assistance, has made it more difficult to agree on a bailout package.
金融支援再開の条件であるＥＵ案が退けられ、合意は一段と難しくなった。
Eurozone countries were to discuss how to respond in a meeting of their leaders Tuesday, but an easy compromise would lead to a backlash from their own peoples. Given the deadlock in negotiations, it has become more likely that Greece will fall into a full-scale default and be pressured to decide whether to leave the eurozone.
ユーロ圏各国は７日の首脳会議で対応を協議するが、安易な妥協は自国民の反発を招きかねない。交渉の行き詰まりでギリシャが本格的な債務不履行（デフォルト）に陥り、ユーロ圏離脱を迫られるシナリオは現実味を増した。
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras characterized the outcome of the plebiscite as a “victory for democracy.” But he was utterly off the mark.
チプラス首相が、国民投票の結果について「民主主義の勝利」と位置付けたのは、あまりに見当違いと言わざるを得ない。
In the first place, it was tremendously problematic that he had asked the people to decide the future course of complicated diplomatic negotiations.
そもそも、複雑な外交交渉の決断を、国民投票に丸投げした手法に大きな問題がある。
The Tsipras administration abruptly decided to call the national referendum amid negotiations with the EU, allowing for about a week before the plebiscite was held. This was too short a period.
チプラス政権はＥＵ側との交渉中に突如、国民投票を決めた。国民への周知期間は１週間ほどで、あまりに短かった。
It cannot be overlooked that Tsipras created false expectations among the people that Greece would gain a strong negotiating position to press for concessions from the EU with a “no” vote majority.
反対票が多数を占めれば、ＥＵ側に譲歩を迫る強い交渉力が得られると唱え、国民に誤った期待を抱かせたことも看過できない。
Mutual concessions key
Greece has already restricted cash withdrawals from its banks. If the European Central Bank cuts off emergency financial aid, the country will be forced to walk a tightrope as it will face a deadlock in raising cash from banks.
ギリシャでは既に、銀行預金の引き出しが制限されている。欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）が緊急支援を打ち切れば、銀行の資金繰りが行き詰まる綱渡りの状況にある。
It was irresponsible that Tsipras did not explain sufficiently to the people the possible adverse effects of raising the level of confrontation with the EU.
ＥＵ側との対立が激化した際のマイナス面を、国民に十分に説明しなかったのは無責任だ。
Greece could seek to survive a fund shortage by issuing a currency of its own, but this would represent the first step toward an exit from the eurozone. It is feared that the value of a currency with less creditworthiness would plunge and drive the country into serious inflation because it relies on imports for many of its daily necessities.
独自の通貨を発行し、資金不足をしのぐ選択肢もあるが、ユーロ圏離脱への第一歩を踏み出すことにつながる。信用力のない通貨が暴落し、生活必需品の多くを輸入に頼るギリシャが、深刻なインフレに見舞われる恐れもある。
The Greek people should not be driven into a further predicament. Without sticking to an anti-austerity stance, the Tsipras administration should seek to find realistic concessions by July 20, the deadline for redeeming €3.5 billion in government bonds.
国民をさらなる苦境に追い込んではなるまい。チプラス政権は反緊縮に拘泥せず、３５億ユーロに上る国債の償還期限が来る７月２０日までに現実的な妥協を図るべきだ。
For its part, it would be unwise for the EU to shut down the channel for negotiations.
ＥＵ側も、交渉の窓口を閉ざすことは得策ではない。
Financial markets continue to feel the adverse effects of the Greek financial crisis, with the Nikkei Stock Average, for example, plummeting more than 500 points momentarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday.
東京市場の平均株価が一時５００円以上も急落するなど、金融市場に悪影響が広がっている。
There is concern that anti-EU political parties will gain strength in Spain and Italy and shake confidence in the euro. Another concern is whether Greece, which has a strategically important position in terms of security, will strengthen relations with Russia or China, thereby heightening geopolitical risk.
スペインやイタリアで反ＥＵ政党が勢力を強め、ユーロの信認を揺さぶる懸念がある。安全保障上の要衝にあるギリシャがロシアや中国と関係を強め、地政学的なリスクが高まることも心配だ。
To avoid restoking a Europe-originated financial crisis and to prevent it from seriously affecting economic and political stability, the EU must do whatever it can to break the stalemate.
欧州発の危機を再燃させ、経済や政治の安定に深刻な打撃を与えないよう、ＥＵ側も事態打開に最善を尽くさねばならない。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 7, 2015)
2015年07月07日
日メコン会議 良質なインフラ整備を進めよ
The Yomiuri Shimbun
Japan must do utmost to help Mekong countries build quality infrastructure
日メコン会議 良質なインフラ整備を進めよ
Given the promise and potential of Southeast Asian nations, providing development assistance and boosting mutually beneficial cooperative ties are actions that correspond to Japan’s national interests. The government must adopt a strategic perspective in addressing these tasks.
将来性豊かな東南アジアの成長を後押しし、互恵的な協力関係を強化することは、日本の国益に合致する。政府は、戦略的に取り組むべきだ。
Japan and five Southeast Asian nations along the Mekong River recently held a summit conference in Tokyo. There Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged fresh assistance to the Mekong countries in the form of \750 billion in official development aid over the next three years. He also stressed that Japan earnestly seeks to bring about “high-quality growth” in the region.
日本とメコン川流域５か国が東京で首脳会議を開いた。安倍首相は、今後３年間で７５００億円規模の政府開発援助（ＯＤＡ）の拠出を表明した。「質の高い成長の実践を目指す」とも強調した。
Abe’s announcement is part of an investment initiative for the Asian region that the Japanese government unveiled in May. The recent assistance pledge emphasized transportation infrastructure projects, including the construction of an arterial road that will serve as an economic corridor linking the east and west of the Mekong region, and the building and upgrading of ports and airports.
５月に発表したアジア投資計画の一環だ。メコン地域の東西を幹線道路で結ぶ「経済回廊」や、港湾、空港など交通面の社会基盤（インフラ）整備に重点を置く。
Flanked by the two major powers of China and India, the Mekong region is situated in an area of high strategic importance for land and maritime traffic in the vicinity of the South China Sea.
メコン地域は、大国の中国とインドに挟まれ、南シナ海に接する陸上・海上交通の要衝である。
Japan maintains generally friendly relations with the five countries − Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar − all of which have been logging high rates of growth.
タイ、ベトナム、カンボジア、ラオス、ミャンマーの各国は基本的に親日的で、成長率も高い。
The implementation of the Abe administration’s growth strategy can be accelerated by using ODA as a catalyst for their economic development and expanding private-sector investment by Japanese firms to make the most of their vitality.
ＯＤＡを呼び水に、日本企業の投資を拡大し、各国の活力を取り込むことは、安倍政権の成長戦略にも資するだろう。
In this regard, it is important to build relations on an equal footing − whereby all parties can enjoy mutual benefits − by paying due respect to individual needs.
大切なのは、相手国の自主性を尊重し、共に利益を享受する対等な関係を築くことである。
‘Soft efforts’ for development
In the case of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the percentage of China’s capital contribution is overwhelmingly large compared to that of other members. This has led to doubts about the impartiality of its management and financing decisions.
中国主導のアジアインフラ投資銀行（ＡＩＩＢ）は、中国の出資比率が突出し、運営や融資判断の公正性に疑念が持たれている。
It is essential for Japan to work hard to maintain effectiveness and a high degree of transparency in its assistance activities to help build quality infrastructure in the region. Such efforts will distinguish Japan’s assistance from that of China.
日本は、適正で透明性の高い援助に努め、「良質なインフラ」を地域に定着させることが肝要だ。それが、中国との差別化を図ることにつながろう。
A joint statement adopted at the close of the summit meeting stressed the significance of working together with the Asian Development Bank. It also advocated boosting Japan’s “soft efforts” in such fields as research and development or the nurturing of human resources.
首脳会議が採択した共同文書は、アジア開発銀行（ＡＤＢ）との連携を強調した。研究開発、人材育成などソフト面の支援に力を入れる方針も打ち出している。
It is vital to carry out a form of “Japanese-style development assistance” that is carefully designed to help each country in the Mekong region achieve sustainable growth through autonomous means.
メコン地域各国の自立的で、持続的な発展を、きめ細かく手助けする「日本型援助」を着実に推進することが重要である。
Views on maritime security issues were also exchanged at the summit conference.
首脳会議では、海洋安全保障についても議論した。
The joint statement made explicit reference to “concerns over the recent development in the South China Sea, which ... may undermine regional peace, security and stability.” This alludes to reclamation projects on reefs that are apparently part of a bid for militarization.
共同文書は「地域の平和、安全、安定を損ないうる南シナ海の最近の動向」への「懸念」を明記した。中国による岩礁埋め立てと軍事施設化を念頭に置いたものだ。
The statement also affirmed the importance of freedom of navigation based on international law and the need to resolve conflicts through peaceful means.
国際法の原則に基づく航行の自由や、紛争の平和的解決の必要性なども盛り込まれた。
Maritime security must be recognized as an “international good” that is indispensable for economic activity to be conducted freely and smoothly, according to the statement. It is highly significant that not only Vietnam, which is at odds with China over territorial issues, but also such countries as Cambodia, which has closer ties with China, agreed on the joint statement’s contents.
海洋の安全は、自由で円滑な経済活動を支える国際公共財だ。中国と領有権問題で対立するベトナムだけでなく、中国と近いカンボジアなども、共同文書の認識を共有したことは意味がある。
In cooperation with the international community, Japan and the five countries must work together at various opportunities to make China refrain from attempting to change the status quo by force.
日本と５か国は様々な機会に、国際社会と連携し、力による現状変更の試みを自制するよう中国に働きかけることが求められる。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 5, 2015)
Japan must do utmost to help Mekong countries build quality infrastructure
日メコン会議 良質なインフラ整備を進めよ
Given the promise and potential of Southeast Asian nations, providing development assistance and boosting mutually beneficial cooperative ties are actions that correspond to Japan’s national interests. The government must adopt a strategic perspective in addressing these tasks.
将来性豊かな東南アジアの成長を後押しし、互恵的な協力関係を強化することは、日本の国益に合致する。政府は、戦略的に取り組むべきだ。
Japan and five Southeast Asian nations along the Mekong River recently held a summit conference in Tokyo. There Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged fresh assistance to the Mekong countries in the form of \750 billion in official development aid over the next three years. He also stressed that Japan earnestly seeks to bring about “high-quality growth” in the region.
日本とメコン川流域５か国が東京で首脳会議を開いた。安倍首相は、今後３年間で７５００億円規模の政府開発援助（ＯＤＡ）の拠出を表明した。「質の高い成長の実践を目指す」とも強調した。
Abe’s announcement is part of an investment initiative for the Asian region that the Japanese government unveiled in May. The recent assistance pledge emphasized transportation infrastructure projects, including the construction of an arterial road that will serve as an economic corridor linking the east and west of the Mekong region, and the building and upgrading of ports and airports.
５月に発表したアジア投資計画の一環だ。メコン地域の東西を幹線道路で結ぶ「経済回廊」や、港湾、空港など交通面の社会基盤（インフラ）整備に重点を置く。
Flanked by the two major powers of China and India, the Mekong region is situated in an area of high strategic importance for land and maritime traffic in the vicinity of the South China Sea.
メコン地域は、大国の中国とインドに挟まれ、南シナ海に接する陸上・海上交通の要衝である。
Japan maintains generally friendly relations with the five countries − Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar − all of which have been logging high rates of growth.
タイ、ベトナム、カンボジア、ラオス、ミャンマーの各国は基本的に親日的で、成長率も高い。
The implementation of the Abe administration’s growth strategy can be accelerated by using ODA as a catalyst for their economic development and expanding private-sector investment by Japanese firms to make the most of their vitality.
ＯＤＡを呼び水に、日本企業の投資を拡大し、各国の活力を取り込むことは、安倍政権の成長戦略にも資するだろう。
In this regard, it is important to build relations on an equal footing − whereby all parties can enjoy mutual benefits − by paying due respect to individual needs.
大切なのは、相手国の自主性を尊重し、共に利益を享受する対等な関係を築くことである。
‘Soft efforts’ for development
In the case of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the percentage of China’s capital contribution is overwhelmingly large compared to that of other members. This has led to doubts about the impartiality of its management and financing decisions.
中国主導のアジアインフラ投資銀行（ＡＩＩＢ）は、中国の出資比率が突出し、運営や融資判断の公正性に疑念が持たれている。
It is essential for Japan to work hard to maintain effectiveness and a high degree of transparency in its assistance activities to help build quality infrastructure in the region. Such efforts will distinguish Japan’s assistance from that of China.
日本は、適正で透明性の高い援助に努め、「良質なインフラ」を地域に定着させることが肝要だ。それが、中国との差別化を図ることにつながろう。
A joint statement adopted at the close of the summit meeting stressed the significance of working together with the Asian Development Bank. It also advocated boosting Japan’s “soft efforts” in such fields as research and development or the nurturing of human resources.
首脳会議が採択した共同文書は、アジア開発銀行（ＡＤＢ）との連携を強調した。研究開発、人材育成などソフト面の支援に力を入れる方針も打ち出している。
It is vital to carry out a form of “Japanese-style development assistance” that is carefully designed to help each country in the Mekong region achieve sustainable growth through autonomous means.
メコン地域各国の自立的で、持続的な発展を、きめ細かく手助けする「日本型援助」を着実に推進することが重要である。
Views on maritime security issues were also exchanged at the summit conference.
首脳会議では、海洋安全保障についても議論した。
The joint statement made explicit reference to “concerns over the recent development in the South China Sea, which ... may undermine regional peace, security and stability.” This alludes to reclamation projects on reefs that are apparently part of a bid for militarization.
共同文書は「地域の平和、安全、安定を損ないうる南シナ海の最近の動向」への「懸念」を明記した。中国による岩礁埋め立てと軍事施設化を念頭に置いたものだ。
The statement also affirmed the importance of freedom of navigation based on international law and the need to resolve conflicts through peaceful means.
国際法の原則に基づく航行の自由や、紛争の平和的解決の必要性なども盛り込まれた。
Maritime security must be recognized as an “international good” that is indispensable for economic activity to be conducted freely and smoothly, according to the statement. It is highly significant that not only Vietnam, which is at odds with China over territorial issues, but also such countries as Cambodia, which has closer ties with China, agreed on the joint statement’s contents.
海洋の安全は、自由で円滑な経済活動を支える国際公共財だ。中国と領有権問題で対立するベトナムだけでなく、中国と近いカンボジアなども、共同文書の認識を共有したことは意味がある。
In cooperation with the international community, Japan and the five countries must work together at various opportunities to make China refrain from attempting to change the status quo by force.
日本と５か国は様々な機会に、国際社会と連携し、力による現状変更の試みを自制するよう中国に働きかけることが求められる。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 5, 2015)
2015年07月04日
拉致再調査１年 対「北」圧力を戦略的に強めよ
The Yomiuri Shimbun
Intransigent N. Korea must be pressed to advance its probe of abductions
拉致再調査１年 対「北」圧力を戦略的に強めよ
Any further continuation of North Korea’s time-buying tactics would be intolerable. The Japanese government must push North Korea to move forward on resolving the problem of having abducted Japanese citizens, with an eye on the possibility of resurrecting and expanding sanctions against Pyongyang.
北朝鮮のこれ以上の時間稼ぎは認められない。政府は、制裁の復活や拡大を視野に、日本人拉致問題の前進を北朝鮮に迫るべきである。
On July 4 last year, North Korea embarked on a new round of investigations into the fate of Japanese abductees. Pyongyang set the duration of the probes at about one year and committed to providing information on the progress of the investigations on an as-needed basis.
北朝鮮は昨年７月４日、拉致被害者らの再調査を開始した。期間は１年程度とし、調査状況の随時通報も約束した。
The Japanese government, in return, lifted parts of its sanctions concerning matters such as restrictions on travel between the two countries and a ban on the entry into Japanese ports of North Korean-registered ships.
政府は見返りに、日朝の人的往来や北朝鮮籍船舶の入港などに関する制裁の一部を解除した。
However, no information has been presented on the safety and other relevant matters regarding the abduction victims.
しかし、いまだに被害者の安否情報などは示されていない。
Pyongyang’ behavior is extremely dishonest . The behavior tramples brazenly on the feelings of the abduction victims’ families and others concerned, who have long been seeking to have them brought back as quickly as possible.
不誠実極まりない対応である。被害者の早期帰国を念願する家族らの感情を踏みにじるものだ。
More than three years have passed since Kim Jong Un began leading North Korea. A streak of purges and ousters of high-ranking officials of his regime and his close associates has continued, indicating Kim has still not succeeded in consolidating his power base. Views have been put forth that Kim has still come up short of creating an environment conducive to making an important political decision on the abduction problem.
金正恩第１書記の就任から３年余が経たつ。最近も幹部や側近の粛清・更迭が続いており、体制固めはまだ不十分とされる。拉致問題で重要な政治決断をする環境にはないとの見方が出ている。
What should be done to break the impasse? The government is urged to strategically address the challenge to win concessions from Pyongyang through dialogue while increasing pressure on North Korea.
膠着こうちゃく状態をどう打開するのか。政府には、圧力を強めつつ、対話を通じて譲歩を引き出すという戦略的な取り組みが求められる。
Should there continue to be no progress with North Korea’s investigations, the resurrection of anti-Pyongyang sanctions would be inevitable.
調査が今後も進展しないなら、制裁の復活は避けられまい。
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, for that matter, has stressed the government has been “constantly reviewing whatever measures should be the most effective” in dealing with North Korea.
菅官房長官は、制裁に関して、「何が最も効果的か、不断の検討を行っている」と強調する。
‘Parallel pursuit’ of 2 aims
In late June, the Liberal Democratic Party proposed to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that anti-Pyongyang sanctions, such as a ban in principle on money remittances to North Korea, be toughened. Such a proposal is one of the options the government will be able to take.
自民党は６月下旬、北朝鮮への送金の原則禁止などの制裁強化案を安倍首相に提言した。こうした案も一つの選択肢となろう。
By accurately assessing how North Korea is going to tackle the abduction problem, Japan should take steps commensurate with Pyongyang’s action. Keeping the principle of “action for action” intact is of great importance.
拉致問題に北朝鮮がどう対処するかを見極め、日本はそれに見合う措置を取る。「行動対行動」の原則を貫くことが重要である。
The pro-Pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon), which was pressed to vacate its Tokyo headquarters after the building was put up for auction, has managed to remain in the building through indirect resales. Suspicion over the mysterious tactics can hardly be eliminated.
在日本朝鮮人総連合会（朝鮮総連）は、競売で中央本部ビルからの退去を迫られたが、転売などを経て現状を維持している。その経緯には不可解さがぬぐえない。
In the case involving the allegedly illegal importing of a shipment of matsutake mushrooms from North Korea, the second son of the head of Chongryon has been arrested and indicted on charges of violating the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law. The law must be rigorously enforced.
北朝鮮産マツタケの不正輸入事件では、総連議長の次男が外為法違反で逮捕、起訴されている。法執行は厳格に行われるべきだ。
It is also essential to broaden the understanding of the international community regarding Pyongyang’s wide-ranging infringements on human rights, including the abductions.
拉致を含む北朝鮮の広範な人権侵害について、国際社会の理解を広げる努力も欠かせない。
Toward the end of June, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees set up its branch in Seoul for the surveillance of human rights records of North Korea. The opening of the UNCHR branch is expected to produce a certain degree of effect to hold North Korea in check.
国連人権高等弁務官事務所は６月下旬、北朝鮮の人権状況を監視する現地事務所をソウルに開設した。北朝鮮をけん制するうえで、一定の効果が期待できよう。
North Korea has adopted a policy of a “parallel pursuit” of nuclear weapons development and rebuilding its economy. Pyongyang has also been continuing to take actions that amount to military provocation, such as the announcement in May that it was successful in launching a ballistic missile from a submarine.
北朝鮮は、核兵器開発と経済建設の「並進路線」を掲げる。５月には、潜水艦発射弾道ミサイルの水中発射に成功したと発表するなど、軍事的挑発も続けている。
It is of dire importance that Japan not weaken the international network of containment toward North Korea. This can be achieved by closely cooperating with the United States and South Korea. Japan should firmly maintain its basic policy of comprehensively resolving the abduction problem, the nuclear and missile programs of Pyongyang.
日本は、米韓両国と緊密に連携し、北朝鮮に対する国際包囲網を崩さないことが肝要だ。拉致と、核・ミサイルを包括的に解決する基本方針を堅持したい。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 3, 2015)
Intransigent N. Korea must be pressed to advance its probe of abductions
拉致再調査１年 対「北」圧力を戦略的に強めよ
Any further continuation of North Korea’s time-buying tactics would be intolerable. The Japanese government must push North Korea to move forward on resolving the problem of having abducted Japanese citizens, with an eye on the possibility of resurrecting and expanding sanctions against Pyongyang.
北朝鮮のこれ以上の時間稼ぎは認められない。政府は、制裁の復活や拡大を視野に、日本人拉致問題の前進を北朝鮮に迫るべきである。
On July 4 last year, North Korea embarked on a new round of investigations into the fate of Japanese abductees. Pyongyang set the duration of the probes at about one year and committed to providing information on the progress of the investigations on an as-needed basis.
北朝鮮は昨年７月４日、拉致被害者らの再調査を開始した。期間は１年程度とし、調査状況の随時通報も約束した。
The Japanese government, in return, lifted parts of its sanctions concerning matters such as restrictions on travel between the two countries and a ban on the entry into Japanese ports of North Korean-registered ships.
政府は見返りに、日朝の人的往来や北朝鮮籍船舶の入港などに関する制裁の一部を解除した。
However, no information has been presented on the safety and other relevant matters regarding the abduction victims.
しかし、いまだに被害者の安否情報などは示されていない。
Pyongyang’ behavior is extremely dishonest . The behavior tramples brazenly on the feelings of the abduction victims’ families and others concerned, who have long been seeking to have them brought back as quickly as possible.
不誠実極まりない対応である。被害者の早期帰国を念願する家族らの感情を踏みにじるものだ。
More than three years have passed since Kim Jong Un began leading North Korea. A streak of purges and ousters of high-ranking officials of his regime and his close associates has continued, indicating Kim has still not succeeded in consolidating his power base. Views have been put forth that Kim has still come up short of creating an environment conducive to making an important political decision on the abduction problem.
金正恩第１書記の就任から３年余が経たつ。最近も幹部や側近の粛清・更迭が続いており、体制固めはまだ不十分とされる。拉致問題で重要な政治決断をする環境にはないとの見方が出ている。
What should be done to break the impasse? The government is urged to strategically address the challenge to win concessions from Pyongyang through dialogue while increasing pressure on North Korea.
膠着こうちゃく状態をどう打開するのか。政府には、圧力を強めつつ、対話を通じて譲歩を引き出すという戦略的な取り組みが求められる。
Should there continue to be no progress with North Korea’s investigations, the resurrection of anti-Pyongyang sanctions would be inevitable.
調査が今後も進展しないなら、制裁の復活は避けられまい。
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, for that matter, has stressed the government has been “constantly reviewing whatever measures should be the most effective” in dealing with North Korea.
菅官房長官は、制裁に関して、「何が最も効果的か、不断の検討を行っている」と強調する。
‘Parallel pursuit’ of 2 aims
In late June, the Liberal Democratic Party proposed to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that anti-Pyongyang sanctions, such as a ban in principle on money remittances to North Korea, be toughened. Such a proposal is one of the options the government will be able to take.
自民党は６月下旬、北朝鮮への送金の原則禁止などの制裁強化案を安倍首相に提言した。こうした案も一つの選択肢となろう。
By accurately assessing how North Korea is going to tackle the abduction problem, Japan should take steps commensurate with Pyongyang’s action. Keeping the principle of “action for action” intact is of great importance.
拉致問題に北朝鮮がどう対処するかを見極め、日本はそれに見合う措置を取る。「行動対行動」の原則を貫くことが重要である。
The pro-Pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon), which was pressed to vacate its Tokyo headquarters after the building was put up for auction, has managed to remain in the building through indirect resales. Suspicion over the mysterious tactics can hardly be eliminated.
在日本朝鮮人総連合会（朝鮮総連）は、競売で中央本部ビルからの退去を迫られたが、転売などを経て現状を維持している。その経緯には不可解さがぬぐえない。
In the case involving the allegedly illegal importing of a shipment of matsutake mushrooms from North Korea, the second son of the head of Chongryon has been arrested and indicted on charges of violating the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law. The law must be rigorously enforced.
北朝鮮産マツタケの不正輸入事件では、総連議長の次男が外為法違反で逮捕、起訴されている。法執行は厳格に行われるべきだ。
It is also essential to broaden the understanding of the international community regarding Pyongyang’s wide-ranging infringements on human rights, including the abductions.
拉致を含む北朝鮮の広範な人権侵害について、国際社会の理解を広げる努力も欠かせない。
Toward the end of June, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees set up its branch in Seoul for the surveillance of human rights records of North Korea. The opening of the UNCHR branch is expected to produce a certain degree of effect to hold North Korea in check.
国連人権高等弁務官事務所は６月下旬、北朝鮮の人権状況を監視する現地事務所をソウルに開設した。北朝鮮をけん制するうえで、一定の効果が期待できよう。
North Korea has adopted a policy of a “parallel pursuit” of nuclear weapons development and rebuilding its economy. Pyongyang has also been continuing to take actions that amount to military provocation, such as the announcement in May that it was successful in launching a ballistic missile from a submarine.
北朝鮮は、核兵器開発と経済建設の「並進路線」を掲げる。５月には、潜水艦発射弾道ミサイルの水中発射に成功したと発表するなど、軍事的挑発も続けている。
It is of dire importance that Japan not weaken the international network of containment toward North Korea. This can be achieved by closely cooperating with the United States and South Korea. Japan should firmly maintain its basic policy of comprehensively resolving the abduction problem, the nuclear and missile programs of Pyongyang.
日本は、米韓両国と緊密に連携し、北朝鮮に対する国際包囲網を崩さないことが肝要だ。拉致と、核・ミサイルを包括的に解決する基本方針を堅持したい。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 3, 2015)
2015年07月03日
新幹線放火殺人 利便性損ねずに再発防ぎたい
The Yomiuri Shimbun
Try to prevent another Shinkansen fire while keeping train service convenient
新幹線放火殺人 利便性損ねずに再発防ぎたい
Taking steps to prevent a recurrence while also ensuring that passengers’ convenience is not compromised − this difficult task has come to the fore.
乗客の利便性を損ねずに、再発防止を図る。難しい課題が浮き彫りになったと言える。
A passenger fatally set himself on fire inside a bullet train on the Tokaido Shinkansen line while it was in motion. A female passenger who was caught up in the incident also died. Twenty-six other passengers were taken to the hospital for treatment.
走行中の東海道新幹線の列車内で、男が焼身自殺した。巻き添えで乗客の女性が死亡した。救急搬送された乗客は２６人に上った。
This is the first fire reported inside a Shinkansen car. The bullet train has boasted of its superb safety record since it began operating about half a century ago. That a passenger who just happened to be in the same car also died is terribly shocking.
新幹線内での火災発生は初めてである。半世紀余りにわたり、高い安全性を誇ってきた新幹線で、たまたま乗り合わせた乗客が死亡した衝撃は大きい。
The Kanagawa prefectural police are investigating the incident as a case of suspected murder and arson of an inhabited structure. The investigation will focus on unraveling the actions of the male passenger up until the crime was committed.
神奈川県警は殺人と現住建造物等放火の容疑で捜査している。男が犯行に至るまでの行動の解明が焦点になる。
The response of the train crew after the fire started seems to have been appropriate for the most part.
火災発生後の乗務員の対応は、おおむね適切だったようだ。
After bringing the train to an emergency stop, the driver immediately grabbed an onboard fire extinguisher and started dousing the flames. A conductor followed the safety manual by quickly guiding fleeing passengers to cars toward the rear of the train.
運転士は列車を緊急停止させた後、備え付けの消火器で即座に消火活動にあたった。車掌が乗客を後方の車両に避難誘導したのも、マニュアル通りの行動だった。
The floors and seats of Shinkansen cars are covered with fire-resistant material. These fire prevention measures were a factor in preventing the damage from spreading even further.
車両の床面やシートには、燃えにくい素材が用いられている。こうした防火対策が被害の拡大を防いだ面もあろう。
There needs to be an investigation into why the female passenger was unable to escape the danger in time.
一方、女性が逃げ遅れた理由については、検証が必要である。
Some observers have suggested that the absence of smoke extraction devices on the train contributed to the car filling with smoke. Is there room for improving equipment installed on Shinkansen trains? Lessons learned from this incident must be used to improve safety.
排煙装置が車内にないことが、煙の充満を招いたとの見方もある。設備面で改善の余地はないのか。事件の教訓を安全性の向上に生かさねばならない。
Baggage check unrealistic
The man apparently started the fire after taking a plastic container containing an oil-like liquid out of his backpack.
男は、油のような液体の入ったポリ容器をリュックサックから取り出して、犯行に及んだ。
Perhaps the only way to prevent people from bringing dangerous materials onto a Shinkansen is to conduct baggage inspections for every single passenger, just like the checks at airports.
危険物の持ち込みを防ぐには、空港のように、乗客一人一人の手荷物検査を実施するしか手立てはないだろう。
However, one of the greatest attractions of the Shinkansen is the convenience of being able to board even after arriving at the station at the last minute before the train departs. This is something passenger planes cannot offer. It is not realistic to introduce baggage screening for Shinkansen trains carrying more than 1,000 passengers that operate on the dot at three-minute intervals during peak times.
しかし、旅客機と異なり、発車間際に駅に着いても乗れる利便性が、新幹線の売り物である。１０００人以上を乗せ、ピーク時には３分間隔で正確に運行する新幹線に手荷物検査を導入するのは、現実的ではあるまい。
The Japan Railways Group and the police should strengthen their cooperation and heighten the frequency of security patrols on station platforms and in trains.
ＪＲと警察が連携を強め、ホームや車内の巡回の頻度を高めることが求められる。
Most cars on bullet trains that run on the Tokaido Shinkansen line have security cameras in the decks of the cars. These cameras do not film the area where passengers sit. Footage taken by these cameras is apparently used, in principle, for follow-up checks in the event of a problem.
東海道新幹線の大半の車両では、デッキに監視カメラが設置されているが、客室内は撮影していない。映像は原則として、トラブルなどがあった際の事後チェックに利用しているという。
We think JR should consider increasing the number of security cameras installed on Shinkansen trains to beef up the deterrent against onboard crime.
犯罪の抑止効果を高めるため、設置箇所を増やすことも検討すべきではないか。
In May 2016, Japan will host a Group of Seven summit meeting (the Ise-Shima summit meeting). Tokyo is preparing to host the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics.
国内では、来年５月に主要国首脳会議（伊勢志摩サミット）が開かれる。２０２０年東京五輪・パラリンピックも控えている。
Preparing countermeasures based on the assumption that unforeseen situations − including a terrorist attack − could occur is an urgent task.
テロなど不測の事態を想定した対策が急務である。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 2, 2015)Speech
Try to prevent another Shinkansen fire while keeping train service convenient
新幹線放火殺人 利便性損ねずに再発防ぎたい
Taking steps to prevent a recurrence while also ensuring that passengers’ convenience is not compromised − this difficult task has come to the fore.
乗客の利便性を損ねずに、再発防止を図る。難しい課題が浮き彫りになったと言える。
A passenger fatally set himself on fire inside a bullet train on the Tokaido Shinkansen line while it was in motion. A female passenger who was caught up in the incident also died. Twenty-six other passengers were taken to the hospital for treatment.
走行中の東海道新幹線の列車内で、男が焼身自殺した。巻き添えで乗客の女性が死亡した。救急搬送された乗客は２６人に上った。
This is the first fire reported inside a Shinkansen car. The bullet train has boasted of its superb safety record since it began operating about half a century ago. That a passenger who just happened to be in the same car also died is terribly shocking.
新幹線内での火災発生は初めてである。半世紀余りにわたり、高い安全性を誇ってきた新幹線で、たまたま乗り合わせた乗客が死亡した衝撃は大きい。
The Kanagawa prefectural police are investigating the incident as a case of suspected murder and arson of an inhabited structure. The investigation will focus on unraveling the actions of the male passenger up until the crime was committed.
神奈川県警は殺人と現住建造物等放火の容疑で捜査している。男が犯行に至るまでの行動の解明が焦点になる。
The response of the train crew after the fire started seems to have been appropriate for the most part.
火災発生後の乗務員の対応は、おおむね適切だったようだ。
After bringing the train to an emergency stop, the driver immediately grabbed an onboard fire extinguisher and started dousing the flames. A conductor followed the safety manual by quickly guiding fleeing passengers to cars toward the rear of the train.
運転士は列車を緊急停止させた後、備え付けの消火器で即座に消火活動にあたった。車掌が乗客を後方の車両に避難誘導したのも、マニュアル通りの行動だった。
The floors and seats of Shinkansen cars are covered with fire-resistant material. These fire prevention measures were a factor in preventing the damage from spreading even further.
車両の床面やシートには、燃えにくい素材が用いられている。こうした防火対策が被害の拡大を防いだ面もあろう。
There needs to be an investigation into why the female passenger was unable to escape the danger in time.
一方、女性が逃げ遅れた理由については、検証が必要である。
Some observers have suggested that the absence of smoke extraction devices on the train contributed to the car filling with smoke. Is there room for improving equipment installed on Shinkansen trains? Lessons learned from this incident must be used to improve safety.
排煙装置が車内にないことが、煙の充満を招いたとの見方もある。設備面で改善の余地はないのか。事件の教訓を安全性の向上に生かさねばならない。
Baggage check unrealistic
The man apparently started the fire after taking a plastic container containing an oil-like liquid out of his backpack.
男は、油のような液体の入ったポリ容器をリュックサックから取り出して、犯行に及んだ。
Perhaps the only way to prevent people from bringing dangerous materials onto a Shinkansen is to conduct baggage inspections for every single passenger, just like the checks at airports.
危険物の持ち込みを防ぐには、空港のように、乗客一人一人の手荷物検査を実施するしか手立てはないだろう。
However, one of the greatest attractions of the Shinkansen is the convenience of being able to board even after arriving at the station at the last minute before the train departs. This is something passenger planes cannot offer. It is not realistic to introduce baggage screening for Shinkansen trains carrying more than 1,000 passengers that operate on the dot at three-minute intervals during peak times.
しかし、旅客機と異なり、発車間際に駅に着いても乗れる利便性が、新幹線の売り物である。１０００人以上を乗せ、ピーク時には３分間隔で正確に運行する新幹線に手荷物検査を導入するのは、現実的ではあるまい。
The Japan Railways Group and the police should strengthen their cooperation and heighten the frequency of security patrols on station platforms and in trains.
ＪＲと警察が連携を強め、ホームや車内の巡回の頻度を高めることが求められる。
Most cars on bullet trains that run on the Tokaido Shinkansen line have security cameras in the decks of the cars. These cameras do not film the area where passengers sit. Footage taken by these cameras is apparently used, in principle, for follow-up checks in the event of a problem.
東海道新幹線の大半の車両では、デッキに監視カメラが設置されているが、客室内は撮影していない。映像は原則として、トラブルなどがあった際の事後チェックに利用しているという。
We think JR should consider increasing the number of security cameras installed on Shinkansen trains to beef up the deterrent against onboard crime.
犯罪の抑止効果を高めるため、設置箇所を増やすことも検討すべきではないか。
In May 2016, Japan will host a Group of Seven summit meeting (the Ise-Shima summit meeting). Tokyo is preparing to host the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics.
国内では、来年５月に主要国首脳会議（伊勢志摩サミット）が開かれる。２０２０年東京五輪・パラリンピックも控えている。
Preparing countermeasures based on the assumption that unforeseen situations − including a terrorist attack − could occur is an urgent task.
テロなど不測の事態を想定した対策が急務である。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 2, 2015)Speech
2015年07月02日
（社説）日本の財政再建 やはり先送りは危うい
--The Asahi Shimbun, June 30
EDITORIAL: Japan’s fiscal crunch requires immediate action
（社説）日本の財政再建 やはり先送りは危うい
Japan is submerged in debt. As of March, the government was in hock for 1.053 quadrillion yen, twice as much as the nation’s gross domestic product.
Japan’s public finances are in worse shape than any other industrial nation, even than Greece, which is trapped in a serious debt crisis. Government bonds outstanding account for over 80 percent of the nation’s overall debt load.
日本の財政は、借金漬けだ。国の借金残高は今年３月で１０５３兆円、国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の２倍と先進国の中で最悪の水準であり、債務危機にあえぐギリシャをも上回る。借金の８割強は、国債である。
During the current fiscal year, which started in April, the Japanese government will have to issue 36 trillion yen worth of new bonds to plug the budget hole. When bonds issued to refinance debt coming due are counted in, the government needs to borrow 170 trillion yen in the year through March 2016.
今年度予算では、財源不足を補うための３６兆円余の新たな国債や、満期を迎えた分の借り換えなどで、総額１７０兆円の国債を発行する。
Can Japan really avoid a fiscal disaster if it is running up so much debt? Won’t the prices of government bonds collapse in the market where government debt securities are traded?
こんなに借金を重ねて大丈夫なのか。発行後に国債が売買される市場で国債価格が急落（金利が急上昇）しないのか。
Huge potential risks in the market
■市場に潜む危うさ
Most government bonds are financed by domestic funds, ultimately by the savings of the people. Many experts say there is no need to worry about a full-blown debt crisis in Japan because the government is not dependent on borrowing from fickle foreign investors who rush to the exit at the first hint of trouble.
国債の大半は、国内の資金、もとをたどれば国民の貯蓄でまかなわれている。逃げ足の速い海外マネーに頼っているわけではないから、大丈夫。こう説明されることが多い。
This common fiscal narrative is correct from the viewpoint of the flow of money. But we should not overlook one worrisome factor behind the money flow structure.
おカネの流れを見れば、その通りだ。ただ、この流れに潜む構図を見落としてはならない。
That’s the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing, which has been described as “different dimension” expansion of money supply.
「異次元」とも称される、日本銀行による大胆な金融緩和策である。
As the centerpiece of its credit easing program, the central bank is buying tremendous amounts of government bonds. Since it adopted additional monetary easing measures last autumn, the BOJ has been buying up to 90 percent of the bonds the government issues in the market.
この政策の柱として、日銀は大量に国債を買っている。昨年秋の緩和策第２弾を経て、そのペースは、政府が市場で発行する分の最大９割に及ぶ。
The BOJ is legally banned from underwriting government bonds, or buying bonds directly from the government.
日銀が政府から国債を直接買う「引き受け」は、法律で禁じられている。
This rule was established because the Japanese central bank once caused a virulent bout of inflation by helping the wartime government raise funds to finance the war.
かつて政府の戦費調達などに日銀が手を貸し、激しいインフレを招いた反省からだ。
Currently, the BOJ buys government bonds via private-sector financial institutions, just short of underwriting of government bonds.
現状は金融機関を経て購入しているとはいえ、引き受けも同然と言える。
Anything could happen in a financial market. Nobody can guarantee that Japanese government bonds will never crash.
何が起きるか分からないのが、市場だ。「日本の国債だけは価格が暴落しない」というわけにはいかない。
If the bond market is roiled by a massive selloff by speculators, corporate borrowing costs as well as interest rates on housing loans will soar. When that happens, the government’s tax revenue will fall due to the consequent weakening of the economy while the government’s debt servicing costs will surge. That will be a fiscal nightmare not unlike what Greece is now facing.
投機筋などによる売り浴びせをきっかけに混乱が広がれば、企業の借り入れや住宅ローンの金利が急上昇し、景気の悪化に伴って税収が減る一方、国債の利払いは増える。ギリシャの惨状は遠い外国の話ではなくなる。
In order to prevent this kind of fiscal disaster, the government needs to keep demonstrating its solid commitment to paying back debt and thereby avoid arousing doubts about its creditworthiness.
そんな事態を避けるには、政府が「借金を返していく」という姿勢を示し続け、「すき」を見せないことだ。
Currently, the BOJ is nipping market disruptions in the bud with its massive bond purchases. But the potential risk is underscored by the fact that none other than BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has been preaching the importance of fiscal rehabilitation to the government.
今は日銀が国債の大量購入で波乱の芽を封じ込めている格好だが、日銀の黒田総裁自身が政府に財政再建の大切さを説いていることがそれを物語る。
Can’t bank on economic growth
■成長頼みは禁じ手
The government’s plan to regain fiscal health, which calls for a primary budget surplus in fiscal 2020, will be an acid test of the government’s will to pay off debt.
２０年度の基礎的財政収支の黒字化を目指す政府の財政再建策は、借金を返していく意思を問う試金石だ。
But the government’s plan is based on the assumption that its tax revenue will keep growing in line with nominal economic growth at annual rates of over 3 percent, a target that is hard to achieve.
ところが、である。
毎年名目で３％台という、実現が難しい成長を前提として、税収も伸びていくと見込む。
While calling on the government to go ahead with the postponed additional increase in the consumption tax rate to 10 percent, the prescription for curing the nation’s fiscal woes doesn’t propose any further tax hike.
増税については、１回延期した消費税率の１０％への引き上げこそ織り込むものの、それ以上は封印。
The plan calls for policy efforts to curb budget growth and cut certain expenditures. But it offers no specific measures or a road map to rein in government spending.
歳出の抑制・削減策も、メニューこそ並べたが、具体案や実行への道筋は先送りした。
The government should seek to increase its tax receipts by stoking economic growth. But banking on revenue growth due to economic expansion is a hope-for-the-best approach to restoring fiscal health that should not be adopted.
経済成長に伴う税収増を目指すのは当然としても、それに頼ることは「期待」頼みの財政再建であり、禁じ手だ。
A reliable way to cure the budget ills is resorting to a combination of spending cuts and tax hikes. Both will inevitably be painful.
確実な手段は、歳出の削減と増税の二つ。ともに痛みを伴う。
First of all, the government needs to hammer out a realistic and effective plan to restrain budget growth and reduce its outlays. All policy areas need to be reviewed for budget cuts. But the focus should be on social security spending, which accounts for one-third of the general-account budget.
まずは歳出の抑制・削減だ。あらゆる分野にメスを入れる必要があるが、焦点は国の一般会計の３分の１を占める社会保障分野だ。
If nothing is done, social security spending will continue growing automatically by nearly 1 trillion yen every year due to the aging of the population.
高齢化に伴い、放っておけば毎年１兆円近いペースで増え続ける。
Japan’s social security system, whose main components include the public health-care, nursing-care and pension programs, is structured along the lines of generations. Basically, the working population supports retired seniors.
医療や介護、年金など、社会保障は「世代」を軸に制度が作られ、現役世代が高齢者を支えるのが基本的な仕組みだ。
Given that disparities in assets and income are growing within the same generations, however, it is vital to restructure the system toward distribution of the burden according to wealth.
しかし、同じ世代の中で資産や所得の格差が開いていることを考えれば「持てる人から持たざる人へ」という軸を加え、制度を改めていくことが不可欠だ。
Considering the seriousness of the fiscal squeeze, curbing budget growth and trimming expenditures here and there alone will be far from enough. The government should also consider a tax increase.
財政難の深刻さを考えれば、歳出の抑制・削減だけでは間に合わず、増税も視野に入れるべきだ。
The pillar of any plan to increase taxes should be a consumption tax hike.
柱になるのは消費税の増税である。
The most appropriate source of revenue to finance social security spending, which grows regardless of economic conditions, is the consumption tax. That’s because consumption tax receipts are less susceptible to economic conditions, and the burden is shared broadly by the entire public.
景気にかかわらず増えていく社会保障をまかなうには、税収が景気に左右されにくく、国民全体で「薄く広く」負担する消費税が適している。
The plan for integrated tax and social security reform worked out by the government three years ago is based on these ideas.
３年前に政府が決めた「社会保障と税の一体改革」は、そうした考え方を根本にすえる。
The administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has ruled out raising the consumption tax rate above 10 percent. But a 10-percent consumption tax will be grossly insufficient to rebuild Japan’s debt-laden public finances.
安倍政権は１０％を超える増税を否定するが、それではとても足りない。
That’s obvious from the fact that many European countries impose a value-added tax (equivalent to Japan’s consumption tax) of around 20 percent on purchases of goods and services.
欧州の多くの国が付加価値税（日本の消費税に相当）の税率を２０％前後としていることからも明らかだ。
As part of an effective tax overhaul, the income and inheritance taxes, which are levied on people’s income and assets, should also be reviewed for making the well-to-do shoulder their fair share of the burden.
所得や資産に課税する所得税や相続税も、豊かな層に応分の負担をしてもらう方向で見直す。そんな税制を目指したい。
Inevitable pains
■避けられない痛み
All these reforms would be painful for taxpayers. But they are inevitable steps to ensure the long-term sustainability of social security and stop shifting the burden to future generations.
いずれも痛みを伴う改革だ。しかし、社会保障を持続可能にし、将来世代へのつけ回しをやめるには、避けて通れない。
If the government shies away from fiscal reform and allows the situation to continue deteriorating, it could eventually face a fiscal collapse.
財政の再建から逃げ、放置すれば、いずれ破綻（はたん）しかねない。
Such a situation would cause the biggest damage to people’s livelihoods.
いったんそうなれば、国民の生活がもっと大きな痛みを強いられる。
Japanese are now facing a crucial choice. Do they accept a radical reform of the system and an increase in their burden to be implemented through revisions to related laws by their elected representatives? Or do they opt to allow market pressure from rising interest rates to force them into necessary reforms?
選挙で選んだ代表を通じ、法律を改正して制度の再設計や負担増を受け入れるのか。金利急騰といった市場の圧力に追いたてられて取り組むのか。
We should choose burden sharing through the democratic process.
民主主義の手続きに基づく負担の分かち合いを選びたい。
EDITORIAL: Japan’s fiscal crunch requires immediate action
（社説）日本の財政再建 やはり先送りは危うい
Japan is submerged in debt. As of March, the government was in hock for 1.053 quadrillion yen, twice as much as the nation’s gross domestic product.
Japan’s public finances are in worse shape than any other industrial nation, even than Greece, which is trapped in a serious debt crisis. Government bonds outstanding account for over 80 percent of the nation’s overall debt load.
日本の財政は、借金漬けだ。国の借金残高は今年３月で１０５３兆円、国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の２倍と先進国の中で最悪の水準であり、債務危機にあえぐギリシャをも上回る。借金の８割強は、国債である。
During the current fiscal year, which started in April, the Japanese government will have to issue 36 trillion yen worth of new bonds to plug the budget hole. When bonds issued to refinance debt coming due are counted in, the government needs to borrow 170 trillion yen in the year through March 2016.
今年度予算では、財源不足を補うための３６兆円余の新たな国債や、満期を迎えた分の借り換えなどで、総額１７０兆円の国債を発行する。
Can Japan really avoid a fiscal disaster if it is running up so much debt? Won’t the prices of government bonds collapse in the market where government debt securities are traded?
こんなに借金を重ねて大丈夫なのか。発行後に国債が売買される市場で国債価格が急落（金利が急上昇）しないのか。
Huge potential risks in the market
■市場に潜む危うさ
Most government bonds are financed by domestic funds, ultimately by the savings of the people. Many experts say there is no need to worry about a full-blown debt crisis in Japan because the government is not dependent on borrowing from fickle foreign investors who rush to the exit at the first hint of trouble.
国債の大半は、国内の資金、もとをたどれば国民の貯蓄でまかなわれている。逃げ足の速い海外マネーに頼っているわけではないから、大丈夫。こう説明されることが多い。
This common fiscal narrative is correct from the viewpoint of the flow of money. But we should not overlook one worrisome factor behind the money flow structure.
おカネの流れを見れば、その通りだ。ただ、この流れに潜む構図を見落としてはならない。
That’s the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing, which has been described as “different dimension” expansion of money supply.
「異次元」とも称される、日本銀行による大胆な金融緩和策である。
As the centerpiece of its credit easing program, the central bank is buying tremendous amounts of government bonds. Since it adopted additional monetary easing measures last autumn, the BOJ has been buying up to 90 percent of the bonds the government issues in the market.
この政策の柱として、日銀は大量に国債を買っている。昨年秋の緩和策第２弾を経て、そのペースは、政府が市場で発行する分の最大９割に及ぶ。
The BOJ is legally banned from underwriting government bonds, or buying bonds directly from the government.
日銀が政府から国債を直接買う「引き受け」は、法律で禁じられている。
This rule was established because the Japanese central bank once caused a virulent bout of inflation by helping the wartime government raise funds to finance the war.
かつて政府の戦費調達などに日銀が手を貸し、激しいインフレを招いた反省からだ。
Currently, the BOJ buys government bonds via private-sector financial institutions, just short of underwriting of government bonds.
現状は金融機関を経て購入しているとはいえ、引き受けも同然と言える。
Anything could happen in a financial market. Nobody can guarantee that Japanese government bonds will never crash.
何が起きるか分からないのが、市場だ。「日本の国債だけは価格が暴落しない」というわけにはいかない。
If the bond market is roiled by a massive selloff by speculators, corporate borrowing costs as well as interest rates on housing loans will soar. When that happens, the government’s tax revenue will fall due to the consequent weakening of the economy while the government’s debt servicing costs will surge. That will be a fiscal nightmare not unlike what Greece is now facing.
投機筋などによる売り浴びせをきっかけに混乱が広がれば、企業の借り入れや住宅ローンの金利が急上昇し、景気の悪化に伴って税収が減る一方、国債の利払いは増える。ギリシャの惨状は遠い外国の話ではなくなる。
In order to prevent this kind of fiscal disaster, the government needs to keep demonstrating its solid commitment to paying back debt and thereby avoid arousing doubts about its creditworthiness.
そんな事態を避けるには、政府が「借金を返していく」という姿勢を示し続け、「すき」を見せないことだ。
Currently, the BOJ is nipping market disruptions in the bud with its massive bond purchases. But the potential risk is underscored by the fact that none other than BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has been preaching the importance of fiscal rehabilitation to the government.
今は日銀が国債の大量購入で波乱の芽を封じ込めている格好だが、日銀の黒田総裁自身が政府に財政再建の大切さを説いていることがそれを物語る。
Can’t bank on economic growth
■成長頼みは禁じ手
The government’s plan to regain fiscal health, which calls for a primary budget surplus in fiscal 2020, will be an acid test of the government’s will to pay off debt.
２０年度の基礎的財政収支の黒字化を目指す政府の財政再建策は、借金を返していく意思を問う試金石だ。
But the government’s plan is based on the assumption that its tax revenue will keep growing in line with nominal economic growth at annual rates of over 3 percent, a target that is hard to achieve.
ところが、である。
毎年名目で３％台という、実現が難しい成長を前提として、税収も伸びていくと見込む。
While calling on the government to go ahead with the postponed additional increase in the consumption tax rate to 10 percent, the prescription for curing the nation’s fiscal woes doesn’t propose any further tax hike.
増税については、１回延期した消費税率の１０％への引き上げこそ織り込むものの、それ以上は封印。
The plan calls for policy efforts to curb budget growth and cut certain expenditures. But it offers no specific measures or a road map to rein in government spending.
歳出の抑制・削減策も、メニューこそ並べたが、具体案や実行への道筋は先送りした。
The government should seek to increase its tax receipts by stoking economic growth. But banking on revenue growth due to economic expansion is a hope-for-the-best approach to restoring fiscal health that should not be adopted.
経済成長に伴う税収増を目指すのは当然としても、それに頼ることは「期待」頼みの財政再建であり、禁じ手だ。
A reliable way to cure the budget ills is resorting to a combination of spending cuts and tax hikes. Both will inevitably be painful.
確実な手段は、歳出の削減と増税の二つ。ともに痛みを伴う。
First of all, the government needs to hammer out a realistic and effective plan to restrain budget growth and reduce its outlays. All policy areas need to be reviewed for budget cuts. But the focus should be on social security spending, which accounts for one-third of the general-account budget.
まずは歳出の抑制・削減だ。あらゆる分野にメスを入れる必要があるが、焦点は国の一般会計の３分の１を占める社会保障分野だ。
If nothing is done, social security spending will continue growing automatically by nearly 1 trillion yen every year due to the aging of the population.
高齢化に伴い、放っておけば毎年１兆円近いペースで増え続ける。
Japan’s social security system, whose main components include the public health-care, nursing-care and pension programs, is structured along the lines of generations. Basically, the working population supports retired seniors.
医療や介護、年金など、社会保障は「世代」を軸に制度が作られ、現役世代が高齢者を支えるのが基本的な仕組みだ。
Given that disparities in assets and income are growing within the same generations, however, it is vital to restructure the system toward distribution of the burden according to wealth.
しかし、同じ世代の中で資産や所得の格差が開いていることを考えれば「持てる人から持たざる人へ」という軸を加え、制度を改めていくことが不可欠だ。
Considering the seriousness of the fiscal squeeze, curbing budget growth and trimming expenditures here and there alone will be far from enough. The government should also consider a tax increase.
財政難の深刻さを考えれば、歳出の抑制・削減だけでは間に合わず、増税も視野に入れるべきだ。
The pillar of any plan to increase taxes should be a consumption tax hike.
柱になるのは消費税の増税である。
The most appropriate source of revenue to finance social security spending, which grows regardless of economic conditions, is the consumption tax. That’s because consumption tax receipts are less susceptible to economic conditions, and the burden is shared broadly by the entire public.
景気にかかわらず増えていく社会保障をまかなうには、税収が景気に左右されにくく、国民全体で「薄く広く」負担する消費税が適している。
The plan for integrated tax and social security reform worked out by the government three years ago is based on these ideas.
３年前に政府が決めた「社会保障と税の一体改革」は、そうした考え方を根本にすえる。
The administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has ruled out raising the consumption tax rate above 10 percent. But a 10-percent consumption tax will be grossly insufficient to rebuild Japan’s debt-laden public finances.
安倍政権は１０％を超える増税を否定するが、それではとても足りない。
That’s obvious from the fact that many European countries impose a value-added tax (equivalent to Japan’s consumption tax) of around 20 percent on purchases of goods and services.
欧州の多くの国が付加価値税（日本の消費税に相当）の税率を２０％前後としていることからも明らかだ。
As part of an effective tax overhaul, the income and inheritance taxes, which are levied on people’s income and assets, should also be reviewed for making the well-to-do shoulder their fair share of the burden.
所得や資産に課税する所得税や相続税も、豊かな層に応分の負担をしてもらう方向で見直す。そんな税制を目指したい。
Inevitable pains
■避けられない痛み
All these reforms would be painful for taxpayers. But they are inevitable steps to ensure the long-term sustainability of social security and stop shifting the burden to future generations.
いずれも痛みを伴う改革だ。しかし、社会保障を持続可能にし、将来世代へのつけ回しをやめるには、避けて通れない。
If the government shies away from fiscal reform and allows the situation to continue deteriorating, it could eventually face a fiscal collapse.
財政の再建から逃げ、放置すれば、いずれ破綻（はたん）しかねない。
Such a situation would cause the biggest damage to people’s livelihoods.
いったんそうなれば、国民の生活がもっと大きな痛みを強いられる。
Japanese are now facing a crucial choice. Do they accept a radical reform of the system and an increase in their burden to be implemented through revisions to related laws by their elected representatives? Or do they opt to allow market pressure from rising interest rates to force them into necessary reforms?
選挙で選んだ代表を通じ、法律を改正して制度の再設計や負担増を受け入れるのか。金利急騰といった市場の圧力に追いたてられて取り組むのか。
We should choose burden sharing through the democratic process.
民主主義の手続きに基づく負担の分かち合いを選びたい。
2015年07月01日
ギリシャ危機 混乱の拡大防ぐ最善の努力を
The Yomiuri Shimbun
Take all possible measures to prevent Greek crisis from expanding globally
ギリシャ危機 混乱の拡大防ぐ最善の努力を
All countries and organizations concerned must do whatever it takes to solve Greece’s financial crisis, thereby avoiding economic turmoil originating in Europe.
欧州発の経済混乱を回避するため、関係する各国・機関は、事態打開へ全力を挙げるべきだ。
The negotiations on a bailout plan between Greece and the European Union, among others, have broken off.
ギリシャ支援を巡る欧州連合（ＥＵ）などとギリシャとの協議が決裂した。
The EU presented a compromise plan to extend the expiry of its financial support until the end of November from the originally scheduled end of June on condition that Greece accept structural reform proposals such as tax increases and cuts in pension payments.
ＥＵ側は、年金減額や増税といった構造改革案の受け入れを条件に、６月末の支援期限を１１月末まで延長する妥協案を示した。
However, Greece suddenly announced a plan to hold a national referendum on the EU proposals on July 5. Furiously angered by the announcement, the EU has decided to cut off assistance as originally scheduled.
だが、ギリシャは突如、ＥＵ案の是非を問う国民投票を７月５日に行う方針を表明した。これに猛反発したＥＵ側は、期限通りに支援を打ち切ることを決めた。
The rupture in talks plunged the world’s stock markets into turmoil Monday, with the key Nikkei Stock Average closing down nearly 600 points Monday compared with Friday’s close.
交渉決裂を受けた週明け、東京市場の平均株価が６００円近く下落するなど、世界の市場に混乱が波及している。
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said, “Japan will analyze the problems, too, and carefully deal with the situation.”
菅官房長官は記者会見で、「日本も問題の情勢分析、対応に遺漏がないようにする」と述べた。
Financial authorities of Japan, the United States and other countries need to prevent the crisis from expanding by cooperating closely with the EU and the International Monetary Fund.
日米をはじめ各国の金融当局は、ＥＵや国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）と緊密に連携し、危機拡大を食い止める必要がある。
The time limit for Greece’s repayment of about €1.5 billion to the IMF comes Tuesday. There is a strong possibility that Greece will default due to a shortage of funds.
ギリシャは３０日、ＩＭＦに対する約１５億ユーロの債務の返済期限を迎える。資金不足で債務不履行（デフォルト）に陥る恐れが強い。
The EU has decided to discontinue the bailout plan probably because it judged that even if Greece defaults on repayment, the adverse effects on markets will be limited since lenders are mostly governments and central banks of other countries.
ＥＵが支援打ち切りを決めたのは、貸し手の大半が各国政府や中央銀行で、ギリシャがデフォルトになっても、市場への悪影響が限られると判断したのだろう。
Avoid underestimation
But the fact remains that the Greek crisis could deal a blow to markets given the complexity of speculation by dealers. Underestimating any possible impact is something to be carefully avoided.
しかし、様々な思惑が錯綜さくそうする市場では、ギリシャ問題が想定外の打撃をもたらす懸念は拭えない。過小評価は禁物である。
Of course, the best solution is for Greece to accept the EU reform proposals so the time limit for repayment can be extended.
無論、事態の沈静化を図る最善の道は、ギリシャがＥＵ側の改革案を受け入れ、支援延長を実現することだ。
The Greek administration of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced the national referendum plan abruptly in an attempt to draw concessions from the EU on the pretext of “the public’s will.” The Tsipras administration also has likely concluded that acceptance of the EU proposals based on the result of the referendum would provide a good excuse for the administration to alter its anti-austerity policy.
チプラス政権が国民投票を唐突に打ち出したのは、「民意」を盾にＥＵへ譲歩を迫る狙いがある。投票の結果、ＥＵ案を受け入れるのなら、反緊縮路線を変更する名分が立つとの計算もあろう。
The Greek people have not been well informed about the progress of negotiations with the EU and the possible impact a default would cause. Therefore, it would be irresponsible for the administration to saddle the people with making the final decision.
ギリシャ国民は、ＥＵとの交渉経過やデフォルトがもたらす影響を十分に知らされていない。政権が国民に最終判断を丸投げするのは、あまりに無責任だ。
The Greek government has resorted to capital control measures, including shutting banks and setting a limit on cash withdrawals, leading to long lines of anxious people in front of ATMs.
ギリシャ政府は、銀行の休業や預金引き出し制限などの資本規制に踏み切った。現金自動預け払い機（ＡＴＭ）に長い列ができるなど国民に不安が広がっている。
These steps are merely stopgaps. If Greece’s exit from the eurozone becomes reality, its economy will most certainly fall into a serious predicament.
こうした規制は一時しのぎに過ぎない。ユーロ圏からの離脱が現実味を帯びれば、ギリシャ経済が深刻な苦境に陥るのは必至だ。
To help prevent further suffering, the Greek government must sincerely explain to the people the need for concessions and move toward compromising with the EU.
国民をこれ以上苦しめないためにも、ギリシャ政府は譲歩の必要性を国民に真摯しんしに説明し、ＥＵ側に歩み寄らねばならない。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 30, 2015)
Take all possible measures to prevent Greek crisis from expanding globally
ギリシャ危機 混乱の拡大防ぐ最善の努力を
All countries and organizations concerned must do whatever it takes to solve Greece’s financial crisis, thereby avoiding economic turmoil originating in Europe.
欧州発の経済混乱を回避するため、関係する各国・機関は、事態打開へ全力を挙げるべきだ。
The negotiations on a bailout plan between Greece and the European Union, among others, have broken off.
ギリシャ支援を巡る欧州連合（ＥＵ）などとギリシャとの協議が決裂した。
The EU presented a compromise plan to extend the expiry of its financial support until the end of November from the originally scheduled end of June on condition that Greece accept structural reform proposals such as tax increases and cuts in pension payments.
ＥＵ側は、年金減額や増税といった構造改革案の受け入れを条件に、６月末の支援期限を１１月末まで延長する妥協案を示した。
However, Greece suddenly announced a plan to hold a national referendum on the EU proposals on July 5. Furiously angered by the announcement, the EU has decided to cut off assistance as originally scheduled.
だが、ギリシャは突如、ＥＵ案の是非を問う国民投票を７月５日に行う方針を表明した。これに猛反発したＥＵ側は、期限通りに支援を打ち切ることを決めた。
The rupture in talks plunged the world’s stock markets into turmoil Monday, with the key Nikkei Stock Average closing down nearly 600 points Monday compared with Friday’s close.
交渉決裂を受けた週明け、東京市場の平均株価が６００円近く下落するなど、世界の市場に混乱が波及している。
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said, “Japan will analyze the problems, too, and carefully deal with the situation.”
菅官房長官は記者会見で、「日本も問題の情勢分析、対応に遺漏がないようにする」と述べた。
Financial authorities of Japan, the United States and other countries need to prevent the crisis from expanding by cooperating closely with the EU and the International Monetary Fund.
日米をはじめ各国の金融当局は、ＥＵや国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）と緊密に連携し、危機拡大を食い止める必要がある。
The time limit for Greece’s repayment of about €1.5 billion to the IMF comes Tuesday. There is a strong possibility that Greece will default due to a shortage of funds.
ギリシャは３０日、ＩＭＦに対する約１５億ユーロの債務の返済期限を迎える。資金不足で債務不履行（デフォルト）に陥る恐れが強い。
The EU has decided to discontinue the bailout plan probably because it judged that even if Greece defaults on repayment, the adverse effects on markets will be limited since lenders are mostly governments and central banks of other countries.
ＥＵが支援打ち切りを決めたのは、貸し手の大半が各国政府や中央銀行で、ギリシャがデフォルトになっても、市場への悪影響が限られると判断したのだろう。
Avoid underestimation
But the fact remains that the Greek crisis could deal a blow to markets given the complexity of speculation by dealers. Underestimating any possible impact is something to be carefully avoided.
しかし、様々な思惑が錯綜さくそうする市場では、ギリシャ問題が想定外の打撃をもたらす懸念は拭えない。過小評価は禁物である。
Of course, the best solution is for Greece to accept the EU reform proposals so the time limit for repayment can be extended.
無論、事態の沈静化を図る最善の道は、ギリシャがＥＵ側の改革案を受け入れ、支援延長を実現することだ。
The Greek administration of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced the national referendum plan abruptly in an attempt to draw concessions from the EU on the pretext of “the public’s will.” The Tsipras administration also has likely concluded that acceptance of the EU proposals based on the result of the referendum would provide a good excuse for the administration to alter its anti-austerity policy.
チプラス政権が国民投票を唐突に打ち出したのは、「民意」を盾にＥＵへ譲歩を迫る狙いがある。投票の結果、ＥＵ案を受け入れるのなら、反緊縮路線を変更する名分が立つとの計算もあろう。
The Greek people have not been well informed about the progress of negotiations with the EU and the possible impact a default would cause. Therefore, it would be irresponsible for the administration to saddle the people with making the final decision.
ギリシャ国民は、ＥＵとの交渉経過やデフォルトがもたらす影響を十分に知らされていない。政権が国民に最終判断を丸投げするのは、あまりに無責任だ。
The Greek government has resorted to capital control measures, including shutting banks and setting a limit on cash withdrawals, leading to long lines of anxious people in front of ATMs.
ギリシャ政府は、銀行の休業や預金引き出し制限などの資本規制に踏み切った。現金自動預け払い機（ＡＴＭ）に長い列ができるなど国民に不安が広がっている。
These steps are merely stopgaps. If Greece’s exit from the eurozone becomes reality, its economy will most certainly fall into a serious predicament.
こうした規制は一時しのぎに過ぎない。ユーロ圏からの離脱が現実味を帯びれば、ギリシャ経済が深刻な苦境に陥るのは必至だ。
To help prevent further suffering, the Greek government must sincerely explain to the people the need for concessions and move toward compromising with the EU.
国民をこれ以上苦しめないためにも、ギリシャ政府は譲歩の必要性を国民に真摯しんしに説明し、ＥＵ側に歩み寄らねばならない。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 30, 2015)