英字新聞

The Yomiuri Shimbun　(Feb. 25, 2009)
Shaky pension system needs to be sorted out
年金財政見通し　国民の不安は別の所にある（2月25日付・読売社説）

The results of the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry's study on the long-term outlook for the public pension system, which examined its future financing, ill fit the "security for 100 years" slogan touted by the ruling parties on pension reform.
　厚生労働省が公的年金の財政状況を検証し、５年ごとに示す長期見通しを公表したが、「１００年安心」とはとても言えない結果である。

The study, presented Monday by the ministry to the Social Security Council, an advisory body to the welfare minister, forecasts that benefits under the corporate employees pension system, known as kosei nenkin, will bottom out at 50.1 percent of the average after-tax salary for corporate employees in fiscal 2038, although they will start falling annually from 62.3 percent in fiscal 2009.
　現役世代の平均収入に対する厚生年金の水準（所得代替率）は、２００９年度の６２・３％から次第に低下して３８年度に５０・１％になるものの、それ以上は下がらないと予測している。

It was the first verification study conducted since the reform of the pension system in 2004. The study is to be carried out every five years.
　０４年の年金改革の際に政府・与党が掲げた「現役世代の収入の５割を年金で確保する」という公約は、辛うじて達成できる、ということらしい。

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Rose-tinted forecasts

The study's results suggest that a pledge made by the government and the ruling parties in the 2004 pension reform--that pension benefits of 50 percent of the average after-tax salary of corporate employees would be secured--will be narrowly met.
　だが、鵜呑(うの)みにすることはできない。

But we cannot accept the study results on faith because the calculation is obviously based on a stack of extremely optimistic forecasts.
この試算は、かなり楽観的な予測を積み重ねた末に、はじき出されているからだ。

For example, the study estimates an annual yield from managing accumulated pension premiums of 4.1 percent. It assumes that as of 2030, the number of elderly workers and members of the working generation will have increased from a previous prediction by 2.4 million and 3.6 million, respectively.
　例えば、公的年金積立金の運用利回りを４・１％と見込んだ。３０年時点の雇用状況について、従来の予測より高齢者の就労は２４０万人増、現役世代の就労も３６０万人増加すると目論(もくろ)んでいる。

As a matter of course, it is difficult to examine the appropriateness of estimates that look ahead several decades. It would be more appropriate to call those assumptions targets rather than estimates.
　無論、数十年先をにらんだ推計の妥当性を語ることは難しい。だが、並んでいる数字は、予測というより目標と呼ぶ方がふさわしい水準である。

The study also forecasts that the premium payment rate for the national pension program will rise to 80 percent from the current 60 percent level. It is obvious that many preconditions supporting the estimates are dubious.
　国民年金保険料の納付率も８０％まで戻ると見込んでいる。現状は６０％台だ。これを見ても、推計を支える前提の多くが危ういことは明らかだろう。

It is inevitable that some people will suspect the long-term outlook actually calculates backward to arrive at estimates that form the basis for the conclusion that a 50 percent ratio of employee pension benefits to the average after-tax salary for corporate employees is achievable. But the study unintentionally shows that very high hurdles lie in the way of fulfilling the 50 percent pledge.
　今回の長期見通しは、所得代替率５０％達成という結論を導くために、前提となる予測を逆算したと見られてもやむを得まい。だが、その結果、５０％を維持するためのハードルは相当に高い、ということを図らずも示したと言える。

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Structure seen as unreliable

Taking the opportunity offered by the release of the study results, it is time to stop juggling numbers and bring discussions on the pension system back to the main thread.
　これを機に、年金制度の議論を数字のつじつま合わせから、本筋に戻す必要があるだろう。

People are anxious about the pension system not because the ratio of benefits to be received may fall below 50 percent of the average after-tax salary of company workers, but because its very structure is unreliable.
　国民が抱く不安の根源は、所得代替率が５０％を割るか否かではなく、年金制度の構造が頼りないことにある。

First and foremost, a source of funding to support the public pension system must be secured.
　まず、年金制度を支える財政的な裏付けを固めるのが先決だ。

The ministry's calculation assumed that the government's contributions to the basic pension plan had been raised from the current one-third to half the total. But a relevant bill has yet to be enacted. Although the government will tap surplus funds in special accounts dubbed "buried treasure" in the next two years, nothing has been decided on a funding source beyond that.
　今回の試算では、基礎年金の国庫負担割合が２分の１に引き上がっていることが大前提になっている。ところが法案は成立しておらず、財源も２年間はいわゆる埋蔵金を取り崩してしのぐものの、その先は何も決まっていない。

Remedial measures need to be formulated that incorporate a mechanism under which one can be assured of receiving a certain level of pension benefits even if one's income is low after retirement. What is important is to fix problems and weaknesses in the existing pension system one by one.
　また、もし老後に低所得となっても一定水準の年金は確実に保障される仕組みを織り込む、といった改善策を練る必要がある。現行制度の問題点や弱点を、着実に改めていくことこそ重要だ。

Efforts to secure a funding source for the social security system and reform the pension scheme must be accelerated.
　社会保障財源の確保と年金制度改革を急がなくてはならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 25, 2009)
（2009年2月25日01時46分 読売新聞）